Our prediction for both was almost perfect! Long is almost in green area, short already reached our support area. The number of both positions is dropping and maybe one of the best confirmations that the ranging period is on and probably may continue further. Why?
Firstly, let me explain what these numbers mean. On BTC Long for example, on chart you see some number around 20270. What does number mean? It is the number of BTC currently in long position. So, currently on Bitfinex we have much more short positions than longs. But, if we check Bitmex, the situation is completelly different! Check out this chart
One exchange is extra bullish while other one is extra bearish… hm… what does it mean for us! As I said first time 4-5 weeks ago and then 2nd time a week ago and now 3rd time today, the accumulation time is on and no one knows how much is it going to last. Maybe few more days but maybe few more weeks.
That’s why total number of both positions are dropping because members are confused and they rather choose to stay aside and wait for trend to be established to start with trading again. Number of longs on Bitmex is a little bit scary and may easily cause long squeeze but the question is where is the majority of stop loss orders. If that area gets reached, big move may easily happen. But on the other side, look at Bitfinex. Much more short orders. Currently, our opinion is that whales are opening shorts on Bitfinex and will try to cause drop by long squeeze on Bitmex.
October 26th is coming soon when we need to get announcement from SEC about 9 rejected ETF proposals. Potential good news ( probably wont happen) coule turn market bullish easily! More likely they will just confirm rejection but considering last 2 negative decision, I do not think that it may be trigger for big drop! For big drop we need trigger from China or SEC but about new topic because looks like ETF could be only potential bullish because we already know that they are rejected and only change in decision may cause big reversal.
We didn’t have right info but considering our previous checks, number of longs on Bitmex is close to all time high so potential long squeeze may lead price easily to 5k area. The question is when, why and what will be trigger for that huge sell off! If we see further increase in number of long positions, long squeeze will be more likely to happen! If that happens, there is no person that will predict the bottom. Bottom will be reached once all stop loss orders get executed!
So, maybe it looks scary but that’s our current reality so be ready for every scenario! One more reason is bearish ETH/USD on weekly time frame with potential targets in 100-150 area. It won’t happen without big sell off in BTC price!