BTC dominance is currently at 53.8% (+0.2%). The total market cap is currently at $209.1 billion (- $0.3 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was at $9.4 billion (- $0.1 billion).

Fundamental analysis

There is no any important news to share so we would like to share with you the reason why the Bitcoin price is quite and why the volatility is so low. The last 24h volume on Bitmex was the lowest volume in this year.

As long as miners are going to control the supply, the price can only move if demand increases, there are a couple of drives to that but the most important are mass adoption and institutional money.

Mass adoption takes time and we are in the very beginning, so this cannot have a big effect, I think that last year we saw the top at 20k, and it will take us many years to go above IF ONLY driver was mass adoption.

The second factor, institutional money is preparing to enter the market and this should and will have huge effect. BUT there should be some prerequisites for this to happen, and the most important is a way to enter this OTC market in a proper “regulated” tunnel. This could be the american ETF of course that we expect sometime next year, or some big exchanges that will open and will be controlled by trusted fiduciaries, for example Fidelity is ready to go on with such a move. More other well trusted institutions are preparing too.

To sum up, we dont expect some dramatic change in prices to the upside if none of the above 2 critical factors happen, and the easiest way is prices to stay here or a bit lower, but just above the marginal cost of the miners. It would take something very very big to happen for this situation to change, to the negative or to the positive.

More than 85% of mining power is controlled by few large mining pools. So, once the cost of mining overcome the profit, they will do everything they can to increase demand so they can continue to operate and generate profit from mining. If we are fully decentralised without these mining pools, then further drop could happen easily because once the cost of mining overcome the profit, miners would turn of their machines, the difficulty would decrease and the rest of miners would mine more BTC and they would be again in profit. But, as we are controlled by few large mining pools that are working with billions, I am almost sure they will do everything they can to stay in profit.

So, trying to combine all these facts, more likely we will stay in this area until we get some demand. Miners are going to do all they can to protect BTC from further decrease. So, short-term drop may happen but in that case, we expect fast pullback at this area and above.

What to say about daily candle that opened and closed at the same price with total daily range of $20 and the lowest volume in 2018?

The accumulation time is on and until we get some news that will trigger volatility, we need to be patient and wait for trading opportunities!


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